EXACT Time BTC Will Pump Again?

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BTC is very low nowadays and we are all aware of it. The market bottom of the bear market once we hit the bottom. It will go up so the rising if you will be not starting at the hall thing. Or after, the half it will start when the bottom of the bear market is reached. And that could be today or next month or maybe three months from now. But it will come, that’s what I think well. I want one more thing a halting cycle, this halting cycle, of course, is not over. so we’re two years in a little bit more. I guess two and a half years in but we have still one and a half years to go so a lot. A lot can happen in that one and a half years, and I former Institutional Investor and popular Bitcoin analyst. Plan B became a Twitter sensation in 2021. when three of his price predictions for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, hit the mark almost squarely in June 2021. The popular Anonymous analyst tweeted that his worst-case scenario for Bitcoin would be 47 thousand dollars in August. 43 thousand dollars in September, 63 thousand in October, 98 thousand in November, and 135 thousand in December. The first three predictions were quickly realized and many believe that the world’s leading crypto asset, was warring towards one hundred thousand dollars.

btc price prediction

According to the pseudonymous analyst

According to the pseudonymous analyst, he gained more than 800000 Twitter followers in two months. As many investors believed his model was foolproof, but that sentiment was greatly tested in November and December 2021, after hitting a record high of 69 thousand dollars in early November. Bitcoin prices began to Tumble dropping to fifty thousand dollars in December, and the low 40s by January 2022. But the failure of a floor model has not stopped Plan B from doing what he loves best. it has since invalidated the model. And now mainly uses his stock-to-flow model which assesses the asset’s stock, and flows to make price predictions in a recent interview with Benjamin Cowan. Plan B briefly explains what went wrong with his past predictions, and most importantly his Bitcoin Outlook as we face two very crucial years in the crypto Industries development. Plan B has been staying low all year, so this is a rare interview you do not want to miss.

Previous Bitcoin predictions and his famous stock-to-flow model glass cycle

The former Institutional Investor Begins by discussing his previous Bitcoin predictions and his famous stock-to-flow model glass cycle. Or at least since I published the article in March 2019, has been a hell of a ride for me. I never imagined the impact and the effect that would have yeah on Twitter on bitcoin and on me personally as well. So just publishing that stock-to-flow thing and seeing it unfold including all the discussions was a big fun until 2021. When everything went up as predicted or expected. I should say so at least we have that it’s not that nothing happened after the how golfing, but one thing is for sure, and let me repeat that. I mean we did not reach 200000 as I thought. We would have an average mind you right as an average, and we would go Way Beyond that. So that did not happen which is too bad.

However it’s not that that the world was boring the last couple of years, and man what happened? It was coveted first and all the after-play aftermath after covet. Then the China mining ban in what was May June summer of 2021, put an entity that the 100000 hoped already the market tried a second time to reach that 100 thousand. Then of course we had this war within Ukraine and inflation picking up and all the rate hikes and quantitative tapering instead of easing.

So, the entire world sort of did 180. In fact, there were three stocked flow models, so the first one that was published in March 2019 had an average price of fifty-five thousand dollars. That was the most accurate with hindsight right? So the original was the most accurate, but when the price started to move up in 2020. After the halving with the new data, I recalibrated that, model on yearly data so not on monthly data like I normally do. but on yearly data only and also, yearly data from before the holiday to get a real out of sample tests if you will, and prediction what that yearly model that had an average of 100 000. And well since the price went up and up, we sort of went with it with a hundred thousand. I guess, Hope was also a part of it with hindsight the 55000 model was more correct. And of course, that was the third model was to stop the floor across asset model that was more like a fundamental model based on historical prices of Bitcoin and stock-flow ratios. But based on the stock-to-flow ratios and the market caps of gold silver real estate and other assets, that’s why we call it the cross-asset model. And that was the sort of Holy Grail.

Predict the price of Bitcoin

Can we predict the price of Bitcoin without or with very little historical data only based on other assets that also are scarce like Bitcoin, so that had a very fundamental value? But also very very rough and very wrong at least the price is very way off well. And a stock-to-flow across asset model had a prize of 288000. So there you have the 55 of the original they’re 100000 later updated on yearly data, and the 288 are based on other asset data. The Clooney macro environment has been tough on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies all year, adding two great liquidation events. And it’s no surprise why prices are so low despite a recent recovery Bitcoin is trading at sixteen thousand five hundred and fifty-two dollars due to the FTX collapse. But things are looking up at the macro end last month the U.S. consumer price index dropped 7.7 percent year over much lower than experts had predicted. And his interview Plan B explains that the 2024 Bitcoin is also going to impact asset prices greatly plus.

We not even through this housing cycle and can’t rule out the possibility of massive upside moves in the approximately 18 months left here’s. Another enlightening clip from the interview only thing that, I added to that model in my opinion. That I saw there is there seems to be some four-year cycle in it. The main rise in the Bitcoin price is always one year after the halving so, you see that the white line of the stock-to-flow model jumped in 2012, and 2016. And the halfing of 2020 and in every three years right after it the Bitcoin price Rises and was quite interesting. While there was not a halfing in 2011, not a formal housing the stock of flow ratio in 2011 did double it was sort of an unofficial halting. There that’s in fact the only thing that caught my eye at the time and I added it in the model, and it sort of like you see in the chart sort of says the same thing. Bitcoin goes up and to the right and the only thing that it adds is the real Rising after the halving.

So coming back to your question yes, I think the next half thing will again be a very important milestone for Bitcoin. Because the miners will see their revenues half and they have to be compensated. Somehow to keep their operations running they know it’s coming so, they’ll plan for it. And I can predict that there will be a lot of people again like the last halflings that will say okay that will be a minor capsulation and a death spiral role and Bitcoin will go to zero. and it’s all over in fact they’re saying that now for other reasons but, that will continue and we heard the last three halflings the death spiral narrative, and the minor capitalization narrative. I think we’ll hear it again and, I think it’s a very fundamental and structural moment for Bitcoin again.

So it either makes it or breaks it. Of course, I think we’ll make it yeah if you go one step deeper. you see that this low so, the bottom the bar bottom of the bear Market is also about a year and a half year after the all-time highs. And that’s also true today it was true in 2019 in 2015. It’s also true today in 2022 but from that bear Market the bottom of the bear Market. Once, we hit the bottom it will go up so the rising if you will be not starting at the hall thing or after. Half of it will start when the bottom of the bear market is reached and that could be today or next month or maybe three months from now. I guess two and a half years in but, we have still one and a half years to go so a lot.

A lot can happen in that one and a half years I know it doesn’t look very well right now with the after-X thing and all. The Fallout of the Paris investors in FTX but, we have one and a half years to go. So once the yeah, well the quantitative easing starts going or the war in Russia. The Korean is over or whatever trigger there will be. We could easily reach that area and this chart let’s say 2024, where the logarithmic regression and the stock-flow model are a Crosslink. Which is in the hundred-thousand-dollar area I would not be surprised. Plan B is convinced that the next event will cause massive price gains. He said as much in several tweets he also recently conducted a Twitter poll asking his 1.8 million followers, if they thought the next having is priced in or if Bitcoin will pump. After the halving as a press time over 20000 people have voted with 75.3 percent voting for a pump. After the howling event, what do you think about plan B’s interview and outlook for the world’s largest cryptocurrency? Please let us know what you think in the comments section below.

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